Happy new year and all that fun stuff! How's the diet going? How's the abstaining from things that are fun and taste good? We're looking forward to Snowdown, literally and festively. I'm going to cover some final thoughts of real estate for last year, mostly to get a feel for where we're headed (spoiler alert, I think it's going to be a mixed bag!), and also because I think it's interested to analyze some of our neighborhoods and micro-markets to see what's trending.
I wouldn't say 2024 finished strong, but it didn't go out with a whimper either. December saw a small bump to sales prices and sales, while moving properties a bit faster than the end of the previous year (is that an indicator for the year ahead?). Inventory continued to maintain a higher than previous year average, and it's tough to say if we're going to breakout of that sales slump in 2025. But hold on a minute, if you were to pluck 2024's data out of a hat, yeah, it doesn't look that hot, but I think our market needed a gap year, some time to catch it's breath and figure out what it wants to do with it's life. One year of below average price appreciation, still appreciation, is OK after the past few years. Let's keep adding inventory and recharging the battery. 

I don't want to go into this year making many bold statements. I think this is the year that Buyers will come to grips with ~6% rates as the new normal, and Sellers will realize they can't price their properties solely based on pandemic era past appreciation. Once both sides come to terms with that, I think we'll see sales pick up. I wonder if the allure of the golden handcuffs (feeling stuck in the home you currently live in due to low rates) might wear off a bit this year, especially if more inventory hits the market and provides compelling options at competitive price points. More people deciding to break free and sell their homes = more inventory = more more selling and so on. It's the gift that keeps on giving, Clark. There are caveats though, as there always are. Well priced, updated, move in ready homes in desirable locations will continue to sell well and push the market. 

Outside of southwest Colorado, there are other factors at play. NAR lost an appeal to keep the DOJ off it's back, so we'll see where that goes. Maybe the new administration tightens the leash on the DOJ, or maybe they have a chip on their shoulder against NAR from past real estate dealings. There's talk that the DOJ wants to make realtors a W-2 position, which would massively disrupt internal brokerage operations. There's also talk of completely dividing the source of compensation of the Selling and Buying agents in a transaction, meaning the Seller would be totally prohibited from compensating the Buyer's agent. For all the sensationalism about the settlement last year, at the end of the day nothing really changed, the majority of Sellers continue to offer compensation to Buyer's agents (it never "went away", it simply couldn't be advertised on the MLS or the sites the MLS syndicates to.), and there's some paperwork up front on the Buying side. The total segmentation of agent compensation would cause disruption on the public/client side of things, in addition to the disruption on the brokerage side of things. But I'm playing the what if game, so we'll just have to wait and see. Just like we're going to have to wait and see how the devastating fires in LA will affect homeowner's insurance throughout the west. There's talk that Colorado is considering some kind of state sponsored homeowner's insurance marketplace, but it's just that right now, talk.

So that was fun! At the end of the day, people are going to continue to buy and sell real estate, and Durango continues to be an attractive place to live. Affordability issues persist for many, which means some folks are starting to really consider peripheral areas like Mancos and Aztec. I don't think Aztec has full caught on yet (maybe that's what they want you to believe!), but as you see from the map below,  Mancos continues to offer a big real estate bang for you buck, while both Durango Wests had pretty flat growth in 2024, and that was despite two new construction builds selling in DW1. So if affordability is key in your search, look west. The more you peel back layers of data, the different stories it tells. You could look at 3.4% growth in La Plata County and say ho hum, but then look at stick built price appreciation in town Durango. It's all about the micro markets!