Another beautiful sunset from Hesperus. I think today is the last day they're open for the season, which is a bummer considering all the snow we have. AND considering we're expecting something like another 3-4' (yes, that's feet) of snow in the first half of next week. Their short season and limited hours make it really hard to commit to a season pass, despite its price point, but some of the most gleeful skiing I've done has been there. With this impressive snowpack, I'm stoked for all the Summer activities this year and really grateful for all the moisture that's going into the environment. We'll have healthy runoff that flushes the rivers out and help fill our reservoirs, the wildflowers should go all out this Summer, and camping in lush green settings in the high country will be a welcome change.

And in less than two weeks, Ska taps their Mexi Logger, so you know Spring is on its way, despite what it looks and feels like outside!

 

 

What a volatile start to the year! I was going to put something out the other week, and then that SVB thing happened, and I wanted to see how that would play out this past week. Is it the start of something bigger? Doesn't really seem like it at this point, we're being led to believe everything is under control and the Fed's safety net is working. Is it going to lead to a real estate market crash? If you watch that stuff on youtube, they've been full of doom and gloom, with gaping mouth thumbnails with explosive, sensational and urgent rhetoric in their headlines. For what it's worth, a broken clock is right twice a day.

Maybe the national market is going to take a hit, somewhat already has, but it's all about the micro-market, which in this case is La Plata County. And I don't really see things crashing here; at least for any of the reasons those talking heads on youtube think. Historically, we've been pretty insulated and rebounded quickly from previous times. We could have a big fire or the Animas/Florida could run dry, both of which seem highly unlikely this year. Let me be perfectly unclear, I'm not unconvinced we're going to see a hit to our market, but I'm not convinced either.

Our market is teetering, held up by opposing forces, kind of like an evenly matched game of tug of war, so I'm not making any bold predictions, we're in a wait and see phase. I'm still aligned with the premise that the low inventory will keep sales prices stable. (This won't be the case in other markets.) I think there's going to be a shortage of inventory for a while, as the folks that bought or refinanced in the last couple of years at sub 3.5% rates probably aren't going anywhere anytime soon. And even if there is a crash here, there are so many people primed and ready to jump on a purchase. Even a 5% decrease in listing prices will pull enough Buyers off the fence, creating new demand and most likely re-stabilizing prices.

There's the data you see above, a small dip in median sales price this year, and holy cannolis, we're nearly 70% down YTD in new listings! Despite higher rates, there is still a demand to buy here, it's just that Buyers aren't as motivated to buy a dilapidated fixer upper at a premium price point with a 6.5% interest rate. It's Durango, this place is awesome and more and more people are finding out. And as I've compared the Colorado mountain resort counties in the past, La Plata County is still the most affordable. A couple of data points to compliment the information above:

  • Durango saw a continuous decline in median sales price since November last year through this January, about -13%. The year prior, from Nov21 to Jan22, it straight declined -14%, and the year prior to that, Nov20-Feb21, it declined -14.8%. And we know what prices ended up doing those years.... So no alarm bells going off here yet. But I'm very curious to see what happens this month and next month as we go into the seasonal spring listing surge. If these current trends continue through April, then

  • There was a 42% decrease in days on market for February in Durango. Maybe we finally moved through a chunk of that inventory that listed last Summer? Folks who listed expecting a previous market as we were shifting into a new one. Maybe it's just a fluke, but if it maintains, it could be an indicator of a market picking back up.


Conclusive thoughts: wait and see.