We're nearing the home stretch for the holidays, hang in there! Kids are in school for one more week until winter break and then the pay per view, main event, season finale holiday thunderdome kicks off! Short of just being better at parenting, I'm always somewhat at a loss going into the new year after having the luxury of the impact of Santa on speed dial right now. Three simple words carry so much weight this month: I'm calling Santa. And yes, there's an app for that.
 
Don't forget about the Business Improvement District's Holiday Rewards event that's currently running, and goes until the rewards are all claimed. Basically, you spend tiers between $200-$750 at the participating local businesses, send the receipts in and get rewarded with a gift cards from one of those businesses. It makes sense considering the season, folks are shopping, and plenty are shopping local.
There's lots to talk about with our market, so do your snow dances and let's get to it!
 
 
Well, Durango just set another record high for median sales price last month. Making the top 3 all-time highest monthly median sales prices all this year, #4 was in November 2021. There's a few things to unpack here. First, yeah, if you went into this year waiting for a crash, if simply for the pragmatic, basic need for affordable housing, I feel for you. Or maybe it was a calculated pause to let the rocky start we had this year with a sleepy market and the SVB collapse play out. But once we got spooled up by the end of Spring, our market was humming! Even though we're down ~20% YTD in sales, most of that can be attributed to the first half of the year. Also, remember hearing that theory that when rates go up, prices go down and vice versa? What happened there? I keep telling folks, there's always more to the headline and the soundbite. 2023 has been the year that has defined the significance of a micromarket. That loudmouth on youtube spouting doom and gloom has no idea about the dynamics of the market you want to get involved in. This entire year, Durango has bucked the national news headlines. Our prices went up when major metro areas were dropping, and we're going into this winter with 20% more active listings than last November, and 46% more active listings than the November prior to that!

Here's where you can pick a side of the coin. Some might praise our market resilient. Others might have a few choice words that would ruin the PG rating of this market update. And that's fair, when a median income struggles to afford a median priced home. Despite the highest interest rates we've seen in what, 20 years, and low inventory, our market appreciated by a pretty decent amount. I've been saying for at least a few years now, Durango has (had?) a long way to grow when compared to other Colorado mountain resort towns; we've been the most affordable, and I wonder how we'll compare after this year, and I think next year is going to be more of the same.

The good news is rates have been dropping! The national avg 30yr fixed is down a full point from it's high, and there is a LOT of talk of the fed cutting rates next year, some speculation as early as next month. I'm adding a new section to this letter, with a few bullet points directed specifically to folks looking to buy and those to sell. I thought that might help to add some clarity to this wall of text while giving you a dose of some doublespeak.
Ho ho ho!
 
BUYING
SELLING
I know sales prices are high, but if you're in the market to purchase, I think this winter could be a good window to find something. As of now, I have a feeling we're going to see another year of appreciation, and if rates drop, even below 6 next year, that's going to bring Buyers to the table and writing offers. I don't often give a push one way or another, but we're going into a season where sales and inventory historically dwindle, with more options on the table than last year.
Don't try to time the "bottom" of the rates, get your ducks ready to quack first thing in January.  I think there's going to be a window with lower rates, lower prices and more options, before things really get cranking in Spring.
Then again, it seems like every year of the 20's has been a hold my beer year, so who really knows!
There's no doubt that higher interest rates and low inventory have slowed the market. Despite that, we're still seeing record median sales prices. The average sales price last month in Durango was $1.13. Keep in mind, the 2nd highest sale in Durango the last 5 years sold in November for ~$10M, and the highest sold in October for $12M (both cash). So there's a reason I use median sales price. If December has "normal" sales, I expect to see a sharp price drop, even using the median scale. But a price drop none the less, which I think is going to look pretty compelling, alongside dropping rates and decent inventory, to folks looking to buy.
Depending on the timeline of rate drops, I've heard early as next month, March and 2nd quarter... it might be worth having your property ready to list closer to March than May, depending on market activity with Buyers jumping the gun the moment the rates start going down.
Even though we're starting to show a slight shift back to a Seller's market, based on month's supply of inventory; there are still more options available to Buyers than they've had in the past. Investing the extra effort to set your property above others will pay off, and it's showing.